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Bayswater vs O. Kingsway Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 11:00

Bayswater

PPG 2.20 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

O. Kingsway

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-18.3%0-24.9%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.3%1-112.2%1-27.3%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.0%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.7%3-14.4%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% 43.5% 2.30 +3.0%

Draw 27.6% 28.6% 3.50 -2.0%

Away win 27.7% 40.0% 2.50 -18.4%

Over 2.5 52.8% 61.7% 1.62 -14.5%

Over 3.5 27.8% 40.0% 2.50 -18.3%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 7.0%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bayswater1.5

O. Kingsway1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BAYSWATER · PPG 2.20

O. KINGSWAY · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.20), Away EXCELLENT (2.50)

Win probability 1X2

Bayswater (H) 44.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +3.0%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.0%

O. Kingsway (A) 27.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bayswater face O. Kingsway in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bayswater a 45% chance, the draw 28% and O. Kingsway 28%, so Bayswater are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Bayswater and 1.2 for O. Kingsway (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bayswater are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 2.50 for O. Kingsway. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 3-2.

Bayswater vs O. Kingsway Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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