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Cooks Hill Utd vs Kahibah Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 10:00

Cooks Hill Utd

PPG 1.25 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kahibah

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.9%0-22.0%0-31.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-02.3%1-14.9%1-25.2%1-33.6%1-4+3.2%2 2-03.0%2-16.4%2-26.7%2-34.8%2-4+4.1%3 3-02.6%3-15.6%3-25.9%3-34.2%3-4+3.6%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-16.8%4+-27.2%4+-35.1%4+-4+4.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 50.0% 2.00 -5.0%

Draw 22.9% 27.8% 3.60 -10.5%

Away win 29.6% 33.3% 3.00 -6.7%

Over 2.5 73.9% 71.4% 1.40 +3.5%

Over 3.5 69.5% 53.2% 1.88 +30.7%

BTTS 66.7% 73.5% 1.36 -9.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob66.7%

H 48% / xG 2.6-2.1 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.7%

#2 2–1 6.4%

#3 3–2 5.9%

#4 1–1 4.9%

#5 3–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cooks Hill Utd2.6

Kahibah2.1

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.9% · O3.5 PROB 69.5%

Form & verdict PPG

COOKS HILL UTD · PPG 1.25

KAHIBAH · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Cooks Hill Utd (H) 47.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -5.0%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -10.5%

Kahibah (A) 29.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cooks Hill Utd face Kahibah in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cooks Hill Utd a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Kahibah 30%, so Cooks Hill Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Cooks Hill Utd and 2.1 for Kahibah (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cooks Hill Utd are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.50 for Kahibah. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +30.7%. This match finished 3-0.

Cooks Hill Utd vs Kahibah Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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