Today / Indonesia - Liga 1 / Semen Padang vs Persik Kediri

Semen Padang vs Persik Kediri Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 32 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 08:30

Semen Padang

PPG 0.80 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Persik Kediri

PPG 0.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-111.7%0-27.2%0-32.9%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.7%1-113.1%1-28.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.0%2-17.4%2-24.5%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.3%3-12.8%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 34.5% 2.90 +3.5%

Draw 28.4% 28.6% 3.50 -0.4%

Away win 35.9% 47.6% 2.10 -24.6%

Over 2.5 46.5% 56.5% 1.77 -17.7%

Over 3.5 21.1% 33.9% 2.95 -22.7%

BTTS 52.3% 61.7% 1.62 -15.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.3%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.5%

#3 0–1 11.7%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Semen Padang1.1

Persik Kediri1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SEMEN PADANG · PPG 0.80

PERSIK KEDIRI · PPG 0.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.80) > Away POOR (0.47)

Win probability 1X2

Semen Padang (H) 35.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +3.5%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -0.4%

Persik Kediri (A) 35.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -24.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Semen Padang face Persik Kediri in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Semen Padang a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Persik Kediri 36%, so Persik Kediri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Semen Padang and 1.2 for Persik Kediri (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Semen Padang are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 0.47 for Persik Kediri. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.5%. This match finished 0-3.

Semen Padang vs Persik Kediri Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Indonesia - Liga 1 Predictions