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Al Shabab vs Al Nassr Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 33 ·Thursday, May 7, 2026, 18:00

Al Shabab

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Al Nassr

PPG 2.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDW

// Model verdict

Away 72% chance

Model probability 65.6% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-15.7%0-28.6%0-38.6%0-4+13.6%1 1-01.8%1-15.5%1-28.2%1-38.2%1-4+13.0%2 2-00.9%2-12.6%2-23.9%2-33.9%2-4+6.2%3 3-00.3%3-10.8%3-21.3%3-31.3%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.8% 12.9% 7.75 -0.5%

Draw 21.6% 18.5% 5.40 +10.0%

Away win 65.6% 75.2% 1.33 -12.8%

Over 2.5 61.7% 74.1% 1.35 -16.7%

Over 3.5 55.8% 52.6% 1.90 +6.0%

BTTS 58.8% 64.5% 1.55 -8.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob58.8%

A 66% / xG 1.0-3.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 8.6%

#2 0–2 8.6%

#3 1–3 8.2%

#4 1–2 8.2%

#5 0–4 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Shabab1.0

Al Nassr3.0

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 55.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AL SHABAB · PPG 1.27

AL NASSR · PPG 2.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

72%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.31) vs Home AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Al Shabab (H) 12.8%

ODDS 7.75 · IMPLIED 12.9% EV -0.5%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +10.0%

Al Nassr (A) 65.6%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Shabab face Al Nassr in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Thursday, May 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Shabab a 13% chance, the draw 22% and Al Nassr 66%, so Al Nassr are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Al Shabab and 3.0 for Al Nassr (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Shabab are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 2.31 for Al Nassr. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 2-4.

Al Shabab vs Al Nassr Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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