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Dinamo Tbilisi vs Spaeri Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 11 ·Thursday, May 7, 2026, 16:00

Dinamo Tbilisi

PPG 0.60 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Spaeri

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-112.9%0-27.5%0-32.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.5%1-113.4%1-27.8%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.0%2-16.9%2-24.0%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.1%3-12.4%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 54.1% 1.85 -34.1%

Draw 28.5% 33.3% 3.00 -8.7%

Away win 35.9% 25.6% 3.90 +40.0%

Over 2.5 45.8% 48.8% 2.05 -6.1%

Over 3.5 18.1% 29.9% 3.34 -23.7%

BTTS 51.6% 54.6% 1.83 -5.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.6%

D 28% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.0%

#3 0–1 12.9%

#4 1–0 11.5%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Tbilisi1.0

Spaeri1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO TBILISI · PPG 0.60

SPAERI · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Tbilisi (H) 35.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -34.1%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.7%

Spaeri (A) 35.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +40.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Tbilisi face Spaeri in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Thursday, May 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Tbilisi a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Spaeri 36%, so Spaeri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Dinamo Tbilisi and 1.2 for Spaeri (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Tbilisi are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.75 for Spaeri. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +40.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Dinamo Tbilisi vs Spaeri Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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