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DC Power W vs Sporting JAX W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Regular Season - 28 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 23:00

DC Power W

PPG 0.92 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sporting JAX W

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-19.4%0-28.1%0-34.7%0-4+3.0%1 1-06.5%1-111.1%1-29.6%1-35.5%1-4+3.5%2 2-03.8%2-16.6%2-25.7%2-33.3%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.5%3-12.6%3-22.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% — — —

Draw 27.0% — — —

Away win 45.4% — — —

Over 2.5 59.3% — — —

Over 3.5 33.2% — — —

BTTS 57.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 52.9%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob57.2%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 8.1%

#4 0–1✓ 9.4%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

DC Power W1.2

Sporting JAX W1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DC POWER W · PPG 0.92

SPORTING JAX W · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home POOR (0.92)

Win probability 1X2

DC Power W (H) 27.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sporting JAX W (A) 45.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

DC Power W face Sporting JAX W in USA - USL Super League on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives DC Power W a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Sporting JAX W 45%, so Sporting JAX W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for DC Power W and 1.7 for Sporting JAX W (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, DC Power W are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 2.33 for Sporting JAX W. This match finished 0-1.

DC Power W vs Sporting JAX W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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