Today / USA - USL Super League / Carolina A. W vs Sporting JAX W

Carolina A. W vs Sporting JAX W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 23:00

Carolina A. W

PPG 1.38 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sporting JAX W

PPG 2.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs Home AVERAGE (1.38)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-111.4%0-28.2%0-34.0%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.6%1-112.5%1-29.0%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.7%2-16.8%2-25.0%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.7%3-12.5%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.6% — — —

Draw 27.7% — — —

Away win 42.7% — — —

Over 2.5 47.6% — — —

Over 3.5 25.2% — — —

BTTS 52.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 52.9%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.5%

A 43% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 0–1 11.4%

#4 1–2 9.0%

#5 0–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carolina A. W1.1

Sporting JAX W1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CAROLINA A. W · PPG 1.38

SPORTING JAX W · PPG 2.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs Home AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Carolina A. W (H) 29.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sporting JAX W (A) 42.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Carolina A. W face Sporting JAX W in USA - USL Super League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carolina A. W a 30% chance, the draw 28% and Sporting JAX W 43%, so Sporting JAX W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Carolina A. W and 1.4 for Sporting JAX W (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carolina A. W are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 2.38 for Sporting JAX W. This match finished 3-1.

Carolina A. W vs Sporting JAX W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Super League Predictions