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Sporting JAX W vs Brooklyn W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 21:00

Sporting JAX W

PPG 1.46 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Brooklyn W

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.46) > Away POOR (0.91)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.3%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.6%1-111.1%1-25.8%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.4%2-19.8%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.5%3-15.8%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.8%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% — — —

Draw 26.8% — — —

Away win 20.7% — — —

Over 2.5 53.3% — — —

Over 3.5 31.0% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 52.9%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1✓ 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting JAX W1.8

Brooklyn W1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING JAX W · PPG 1.46

BROOKLYN W · PPG 0.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.46) > Away POOR (0.91)

Win probability 1X2

Sporting JAX W (H) 52.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Brooklyn W (A) 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting JAX W face Brooklyn W in USA - USL Super League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting JAX W a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Brooklyn W 21%, so Sporting JAX W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sporting JAX W and 1.0 for Brooklyn W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting JAX W are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 0.91 for Brooklyn W. This match finished 2-1.

Sporting JAX W vs Brooklyn W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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