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Tampa Bay Sun W vs Dallas T. W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 23:30

Tampa Bay Sun W

PPG 0.62 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Dallas T. W

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.23) vs Home POOR (0.62)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-110.5%0-26.8%0-32.9%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.9%1-112.8%1-28.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.1%2-17.8%2-25.0%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.5%3-13.2%3-22.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% — — —

Draw 27.2% — — —

Away win 36.0% — — —

Over 2.5 46.5% — — —

Over 3.5 24.4% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 52.9%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

A 36% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.1%

#3 0–1 10.5%

#4 1–2 8.2%

#5 1–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tampa Bay Sun W1.2

Dallas T. W1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMPA BAY SUN W · PPG 0.62

DALLAS T. W · PPG 1.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.23) vs Home POOR (0.62)

Win probability 1X2

Tampa Bay Sun W (H) 36.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Dallas T. W (A) 36.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tampa Bay Sun W face Dallas T. W in USA - USL Super League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tampa Bay Sun W a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Dallas T. W 36%, so Tampa Bay Sun W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Tampa Bay Sun W and 1.3 for Dallas T. W (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tampa Bay Sun W are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 1.23 for Dallas T. W. This match finished 0-2.

Tampa Bay Sun W vs Dallas T. W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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