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Lexington W vs Brooklyn W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Regular Season - 29 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 18:00

Lexington W

PPG 1.83 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Brooklyn W

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-15.3%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.3%1-110.2%1-24.2%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.5%3-16.3%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-14.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% — — —

Draw 26.4% — — —

Away win 22.6% — — —

Over 2.5 53.1% — — —

Over 3.5 29.7% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 52.9%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 51% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.8%

#2 1–1 10.2%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lexington W1.9

Brooklyn W0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEXINGTON W · PPG 1.83

BROOKLYN W · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.83) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Lexington W (H) 51.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Brooklyn W (A) 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lexington W face Brooklyn W in USA - USL Super League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lexington W a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Brooklyn W 23%, so Lexington W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Lexington W and 0.8 for Brooklyn W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lexington W are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.83 for Brooklyn W. This match finished 3-1.

Lexington W vs Brooklyn W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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