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F. Lauderdale W vs Tampa Bay Sun W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 23:30

F. Lauderdale W

PPG 0.92 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Tampa Bay Sun W

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.92), Away AVERAGE (1.08)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-17.2%0-25.3%0-32.6%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.5%1-111.1%1-28.2%1-34.1%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.6%2-26.3%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.0%3-14.4%3-23.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% 41.7% 2.40 -10.0%

Draw 27.5% 30.8% 3.25 -10.6%

Away win 34.9% 39.2% 2.55 -11.0%

Over 2.5 58.1% 61.7% 1.62 -5.9%

Over 3.5 35.7% — — —

BTTS 62.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 52.9%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.3%

H 38% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2✓ 8.2%

#4 0–0 4.9%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

F. Lauderdale W1.5

Tampa Bay Sun W1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.7%

Form & verdict PPG

F. LAUDERDALE W · PPG 0.92

TAMPA BAY SUN W · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.92), Away AVERAGE (1.08)

Win probability 1X2

F. Lauderdale W (H) 37.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -10.0%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.6%

Tampa Bay Sun W (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

F. Lauderdale W face Tampa Bay Sun W in USA - USL Super League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives F. Lauderdale W a 38% chance, the draw 28% and Tampa Bay Sun W 35%, so F. Lauderdale W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for F. Lauderdale W and 1.5 for Tampa Bay Sun W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, F. Lauderdale W are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.08 for Tampa Bay Sun W. This match finished 1-2.

F. Lauderdale W vs Tampa Bay Sun W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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