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Lexington W vs Tampa Bay Sun W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 21:00

Lexington W

PPG 1.92 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Tampa Bay Sun W

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.92) > Away AVERAGE (1.23)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-14.3%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.9%1-19.0%1-23.5%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.6%2-23.7%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.9%3-16.8%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-15.9%4+-22.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.4% — — —

Draw 21.9% — — —

Away win 17.8% — — —

Over 2.5 59.1% — — —

Over 3.5 32.7% — — —

BTTS 51.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 52.9%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 60% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.6%

#2 1–0✓ 11.9%

#3 1–1 9.0%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lexington W2.1

Tampa Bay Sun W0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEXINGTON W · PPG 1.92

TAMPA BAY SUN W · PPG 1.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.92) > Away AVERAGE (1.23)

Win probability 1X2

Lexington W (H) 60.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tampa Bay Sun W (A) 17.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lexington W face Tampa Bay Sun W in USA - USL Super League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lexington W a 60% chance, the draw 22% and Tampa Bay Sun W 18%, so Lexington W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Lexington W and 0.8 for Tampa Bay Sun W (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lexington W are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.23 for Tampa Bay Sun W. This match finished 1-0.

Lexington W vs Tampa Bay Sun W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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