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Sporting JAX W vs Carolina A. W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Semi-finals ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 21:00

Sporting JAX W

PPG 1.57 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Carolina A. W

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Caution: Away form (2.14) strong but model favors Home (P=41.4%)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-19.9%0-25.7%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.2%1-112.9%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.3%2-18.4%2-24.8%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.2%3-13.7%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.4% — — —

Draw 28.5% — — —

Away win 30.1% — — —

Over 2.5 47.6% — — —

Over 3.5 23.3% — — —

BTTS 51.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 52.9%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.6%

H 41% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 0–1✓ 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting JAX W1.3

Carolina A. W1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING JAX W · PPG 1.57

CAROLINA A. W · PPG 2.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (2.14) strong but model favors Home (P=41.4%)

Win probability 1X2

Sporting JAX W (H) 41.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Carolina A. W (A) 30.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting JAX W face Carolina A. W in USA - USL Super League on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting JAX W a 41% chance, the draw 28% and Carolina A. W 30%, so Sporting JAX W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sporting JAX W and 1.1 for Carolina A. W (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting JAX W are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 2.14 for Carolina A. W. This match finished 0-1.

Sporting JAX W vs Carolina A. W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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