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Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:15

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

PPG 2.19 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

UPCOMING

Al-Jazira

PPG 1.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.9%0-24.7%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.1%1-112.0%1-27.1%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.2%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.9%3-14.7%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 47.6% 2.10 -4.7%

Draw 24.6% 30.8% 3.25 -12.0%

Away win 30.1% 30.3% 3.30 -0.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 61.7% 1.62 -12.8%

Over 3.5 31.7% 40.8% 2.45 -22.3%

BTTS 55.9% 69.0% 1.45 -18.9%

Home O1.5 40.0% 55.6% 1.80 -28.0%

Away O1.5 34.1% 42.6% 2.35 -19.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 10.1%

#4 2–0 7.7%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai1.5

Al-Jazira1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SHABAB AL AHLI DUBAI · PPG 2.19

AL-JAZIRA · PPG 1.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -4.7%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.0%

Al-Jazira (A) 30.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai face Al-Jazira in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Al-Jazira 30%, so Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.2 for Al-Jazira (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 2.19 points per game versus 1.91 for Al-Jazira.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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