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Al Nasr vs Ajman Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:45

Al Nasr

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

DWL ··

UPCOMING

Ajman

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.8%0-24.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.3%1-111.3%1-26.9%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.4%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.3%3-15.2%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.2%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 51.3% 1.95 -9.3%

Draw 24.2% 30.3% 3.30 -12.1%

Away win 29.3% 30.3% 3.30 -2.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 60.2% 1.66 -0.9%

Over 3.5 36.4% 38.2% 2.62 -4.6%

BTTS 61.5% 63.7% 1.57 -3.4%

Home O1.5 49.2% 54.1% 1.85 -9.0%

Away O1.5 36.8% 39.2% 2.55 -6.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 1–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Nasr1.7

Ajman1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AL NASR · PPG 1.59

AJMAN · PPG 1.48

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Nasr (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -9.3%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.1%

Ajman (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Nasr face Ajman in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Nasr a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Ajman 29%, so Al Nasr are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Al Nasr and 1.2 for Ajman (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Nasr are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.48 for Ajman. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.7%.

Al Nasr vs Ajman Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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