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Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:45

Baniyas SC

PPG 0.77 · HOME

LAST 5

LLL ··

UPCOMING

Hatta SC

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLL ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.9%0-24.2%0-32.4%0-4+1.6%1 1-05.2%1-19.0%1-27.8%1-34.5%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.8%2-18.2%2-27.1%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.9%3-15.0%3-24.4%3-32.5%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.5%4+-23.0%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 55.6% 1.80 -21.5%

Draw 21.4% 27.8% 3.60 -13.8%

Away win 35.0% 27.8% 3.60 +26.0%

Over 2.5 68.4% 62.5% 1.60 +9.4%

Over 3.5 45.0% 40.0% 2.50 +12.5%

BTTS 63.5% 64.5% 1.55 -1.6%

Home O1.5 54.0% 61.7% 1.62 -12.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 36.4% 2.75 +31.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baniyas SC1.8

Hatta SC1.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BANIYAS SC · PPG 0.77

HATTA SC · PPG 1.25

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

64%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Baniyas SC (H) 43.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -21.5%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -13.8%

Hatta SC (A) 35.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +26.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Baniyas SC face Hatta SC in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baniyas SC a 44% chance, the draw 21% and Hatta SC 35%, so Baniyas SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Baniyas SC and 1.7 for Hatta SC (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baniyas SC are averaging 0.77 points per game versus 1.25 for Hatta SC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +89.0%.

Baniyas SC vs Hatta SC Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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