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Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Matchday 4 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:15

Al-Wasl FC

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

WWL ··

UPCOMING

Khorfakkan

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.0%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.5%1-110.0%1-25.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.3%3-16.6%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-15.2%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.2% 76.3% 1.31 -25.1%

Draw 21.3% 19.0% 5.25 +7.1%

Away win 21.5% 13.3% 7.50 +36.8%

Over 2.5 60.4% 72.5% 1.38 -16.7%

Over 3.5 37.3% 50.0% 2.00 -25.4%

BTTS 55.9% 61.7% 1.62 -9.4%

Home O1.5 55.8% 78.1% 1.28 -28.6%

Away O1.5 32.5% 28.2% 3.55 +15.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 57% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Wasl FC2.0

Khorfakkan1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-WASL FC · PPG 1.88

KHORFAKKAN · PPG 1.06

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Al-Wasl FC (H) 57.2%

ODDS 1.31 · IMPLIED 76.3% EV -25.1%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +7.1%

Khorfakkan (A) 21.5%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +36.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Wasl FC face Khorfakkan in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Wasl FC a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Khorfakkan 22%, so Al-Wasl FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Al-Wasl FC and 1.1 for Khorfakkan (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Wasl FC are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.06 for Khorfakkan. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +27.8%.

Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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