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Punjab vs Chennaiyin Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Regular Season - 12 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 14:00

Punjab

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Chennaiyin

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-15.3%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.2%1-19.5%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.4%2-18.5%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.3%3-15.1%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-13.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.9% 67.6% 1.48 -12.8%

Draw 25.3% 25.6% 3.90 -0.8%

Away win 15.8% 16.7% 6.00 -3.1%

Over 2.5 46.5% 55.6% 1.80 -16.3%

Over 3.5 21.1% 33.9% 2.95 -22.7%

BTTS 47.6% 54.1% 1.85 -11.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.6%

H 59% / xG 1.8-0.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 17.2%

#2 2–0 15.4%

#3 0–0 9.5%

#4 1–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Punjab1.8

Chennaiyin0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PUNJAB · PPG 2.00

CHENNAIYIN · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=58.9%

Win probability 1X2

Punjab (H) 58.9%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -12.8%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -0.8%

Chennaiyin (A) 15.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Punjab face Chennaiyin in India - Indian Super League on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Punjab a 59% chance, the draw 25% and Chennaiyin 16%, so Punjab are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Punjab and 0.6 for Chennaiyin (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Punjab are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Chennaiyin. This match finished 1-0.

Punjab vs Chennaiyin Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More India - Indian Super League Predictions