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NorthEast Utd vs Mohammedan Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Regular Season - 13 ·Tuesday, May 19, 2026, 11:30

NorthEast Utd

PPG 1.29 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Mohammedan

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-14.1%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.3%1-19.0%1-23.9%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-19.8%2-24.3%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.2%3-17.1%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-16.4%4+-22.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.1% 80.0% 1.25 -26.1%

Draw 21.8% 19.6% 5.10 +6.7%

Away win 19.0% 10.4% 9.60 +49.4%

Over 2.5 59.1% 69.0% 1.45 -14.3%

Over 3.5 36.3% 46.5% 2.15 -22.0%

BTTS 52.5% 55.6% 1.80 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.5%

H 59% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 11.2%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 3–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NorthEast Utd2.2

Mohammedan0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTHEAST UTD · PPG 1.29

MOHAMMEDAN · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs P(Home)=59.1%

Win probability 1X2

NorthEast Utd (H) 59.1%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -26.1%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +6.7%

Mohammedan (A) 19.0%

ODDS 9.60 · IMPLIED 10.4% EV +49.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

NorthEast Utd face Mohammedan in India - Indian Super League on Tuesday, May 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NorthEast Utd a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Mohammedan 19%, so NorthEast Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for NorthEast Utd and 0.9 for Mohammedan (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NorthEast Utd are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.33 for Mohammedan. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +49.4%. This match finished 2-0.

NorthEast Utd vs Mohammedan Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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