Today / India - Indian Super League / Mohun Bagan vs Sporting Delhi

Mohun Bagan vs Sporting Delhi Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Regular Season - 13 ·Thursday, May 21, 2026, 14:00

Mohun Bagan

PPG 2.13 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sporting Delhi

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-15.6%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.3%1-110.0%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.5%2-18.9%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.6%3-15.3%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-13.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 83.3% 1.20 -32.7%

Draw 24.9% 18.5% 5.40 +20.7%

Away win 19.0% 7.7% 13.00 +88.2%

Over 2.5 47.4% 63.7% 1.57 -25.6%

Over 3.5 21.9% 41.7% 2.40 -28.5%

BTTS 48.6% 45.5% 2.20 +6.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.6%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.6 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.3%

#2 2–0 14.5%

#3 1–1 10.0%

#4 0–0 9.2%

#5 2–1✓ 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mohun Bagan1.8

Sporting Delhi0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 21.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MOHUN BAGAN · PPG 2.13

SPORTING DELHI · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=56.1%

Win probability 1X2

Mohun Bagan (H) 56.1%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -32.7%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +20.7%

Sporting Delhi (A) 19.0%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +88.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mohun Bagan face Sporting Delhi in India - Indian Super League on Thursday, May 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mohun Bagan a 56% chance, the draw 25% and Sporting Delhi 19%, so Mohun Bagan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Mohun Bagan and 0.6 for Sporting Delhi (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mohun Bagan are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 0.67 for Sporting Delhi. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +88.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Mohun Bagan vs Sporting Delhi Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More India - Indian Super League Predictions