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Chennaiyin vs Bengaluru Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:30

Chennaiyin

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Bengaluru

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 56.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-117.6%0-212.9%0-36.3%0-4+3.2%1 1-07.8%1-111.5%1-28.4%1-34.1%1-4+2.1%2 2-02.6%2-13.8%2-22.8%2-31.4%2-4+0.7%3 3-00.6%3-10.8%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.9% 23.8% 4.20 -22.4%

Draw 28.7% 29.0% 3.45 -0.6%

Away win 56.4% 57.1% 1.75 -1.3%

Over 2.5 46.2% 51.8% 1.93 -10.8%

Over 3.5 16.6% 29.9% 3.35 -26.6%

BTTS 48.6% 55.6% 1.80 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob48.6%

A 56% / xG 0.7-1.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.6%

#2 0–0 12.0%

#3 1–1 11.5%

#4 0–2 12.9%

#5 1–2✓ 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chennaiyin0.7

Bengaluru1.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CHENNAIYIN · PPG 1.00

BENGALURU · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Chennaiyin (H) 14.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -22.4%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -0.6%

Bengaluru (A) 56.4%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chennaiyin face Bengaluru in India - Indian Super League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chennaiyin a 15% chance, the draw 29% and Bengaluru 56%, so Bengaluru are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Chennaiyin and 1.5 for Bengaluru (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chennaiyin are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.33 for Bengaluru. This match finished 1-2.

Chennaiyin vs Bengaluru Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More India - Indian Super League Predictions