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Mohun Bagan vs East Bengal Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:00

Mohun Bagan

PPG 2.29 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

East Bengal

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-19.3%0-25.8%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.0%1-112.5%1-27.8%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.8%2-18.5%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.1%3-13.8%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 52.6% 1.90 -28.2%

Draw 27.7% 29.0% 3.45 -2.7%

Away win 34.5% 28.2% 3.55 +22.5%

Over 2.5 52.6% 57.8% 1.73 -9.0%

Over 3.5 26.4% 36.4% 2.75 -16.4%

BTTS 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.6%

H 38% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mohun Bagan1.4

East Bengal1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MOHUN BAGAN · PPG 2.29

EAST BENGAL · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.29)

Win probability 1X2

Mohun Bagan (H) 37.8%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -28.2%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -2.7%

East Bengal (A) 34.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +22.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mohun Bagan face East Bengal in India - Indian Super League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mohun Bagan a 38% chance, the draw 28% and East Bengal 35%, so Mohun Bagan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Mohun Bagan and 1.2 for East Bengal (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mohun Bagan are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 3.00 for East Bengal. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +22.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Mohun Bagan vs East Bengal Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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