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Punjab vs Mumbai City Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Regular Season - 13 ·Thursday, May 21, 2026, 14:00

Punjab

PPG 2.20 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Mumbai City

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.9%0-114.1%0-25.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.6%1-113.2%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.8%2-16.1%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.4%3-11.9%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 47.6% 2.10 -20.2%

Draw 35.2% 30.8% 3.25 +14.4%

Away win 26.8% 31.3% 3.20 -8.5%

Over 2.5 35.0% 51.3% 1.95 -31.8%

Over 3.5 9.7% 29.9% 3.35 -40.5%

BTTS 46.2% 58.8% 1.70 -21.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.2%

H 38% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.9%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.6%

#4 0–1 14.1%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Punjab0.9

Mumbai City0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PUNJAB · PPG 2.20

MUMBAI CITY · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.20), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Punjab (H) 38.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -20.2%

Draw 35.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +14.4%

Mumbai City (A) 26.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Punjab face Mumbai City in India - Indian Super League on Thursday, May 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Punjab a 38% chance, the draw 35% and Mumbai City 27%, so Punjab are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Punjab and 0.8 for Mumbai City (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Punjab are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 2.00 for Mumbai City. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +14.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Punjab vs Mumbai City Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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