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Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Regular Season - 11 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 12:00

Samtredia

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Aragvi Dusheti

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-19.2%0-25.4%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.6%1-112.6%1-27.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.3%2-18.7%2-25.1%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.4%3-14.0%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.7% 55.6% 1.80 -24.9%

Draw 27.7% 29.4% 3.40 -3.5%

Away win 30.6% 26.7% 3.75 +14.8%

Over 2.5 47.2% 54.1% 1.85 -12.7%

Over 3.5 25.5% 33.7% 2.97 -14.6%

BTTS 54.6% 57.1% 1.75 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.7%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Samtredia1.4

Aragvi Dusheti1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.2% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMTREDIA · PPG 1.40

ARAGVI DUSHETI · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=41.7%

Win probability 1X2

Samtredia (H) 41.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -24.9%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.5%

Aragvi Dusheti (A) 30.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Samtredia face Aragvi Dusheti in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samtredia a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Aragvi Dusheti 31%, so Samtredia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Samtredia and 1.2 for Aragvi Dusheti (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samtredia are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.40 for Aragvi Dusheti. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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