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Gareji vs Kolkheti Poti Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 13:00

Gareji

PPG 2.09 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Kolkheti Poti

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-16.1%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.2%1-110.3%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.5%2-18.6%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.1%3-14.8%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-13.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 64.5% 1.55 -17.5%

Draw 24.7% 28.6% 3.50 -8.1%

Away win 22.2% 18.2% 5.50 +13.3%

Over 2.5 44.8% 46.5% 2.15 -3.7%

Over 3.5 25.6% 26.7% 3.75 -2.4%

BTTS 47.6% 45.5% 2.20 +4.7%

Home O1.5 48.8% — — —

Away O1.5 16.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 30.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.6%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.6 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 2–0 14.5%

#3 1–1 10.3%

#4 0–0 10.3%

#5 0–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gareji1.7

Kolkheti Poti0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GAREJI · PPG 2.09

KOLKHETI POTI · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.08 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gareji (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -17.5%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.1%

Kolkheti Poti (A) 22.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gareji face Kolkheti Poti in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gareji a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Kolkheti Poti 22%, so Gareji are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Gareji and 0.6 for Kolkheti Poti (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gareji are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 0.40 for Kolkheti Poti. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +4.7%. This match finished 3-2.

Gareji vs Kolkheti Poti Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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