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Telavi vs Merani Martvili Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:00

Telavi

PPG 2.27 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Merani Martvili

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-18.5%0-22.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.1%1-111.5%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.9%2-17.8%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.9%3-13.5%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-11.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 54.1% 1.85 -4.7%

Draw 27.0% 30.8% 3.25 -7.3%

Away win 21.5% 27.0% 3.70 -12.3%

Over 2.5 38.0% 45.5% 2.20 -16.4%

Over 3.5 19.1% 25.0% 4.00 -14.2%

BTTS 43.6% 51.3% 1.95 -15.0%

Home O1.5 37.8% — — —

Away O1.5 16.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 30.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.6%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 19.1%

#2 0–0 14.1%

#3 2–0 12.9%

#4 1–1 11.5%

#5 0–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Telavi1.4

Merani Martvili0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TELAVI · PPG 2.27

MERANI MARTVILI · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Telavi (H) 51.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -4.7%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.3%

Merani Martvili (A) 21.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Telavi face Merani Martvili in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Telavi a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Merani Martvili 22%, so Telavi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Telavi and 0.6 for Merani Martvili (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Telavi are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.20 for Merani Martvili. This match finished 1-0.

Telavi vs Merani Martvili Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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