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Shturmi vs Samtredia Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:00

Shturmi

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Samtredia

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-15.0%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.2%1-19.9%1-24.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.8%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.9%3-16.4%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-15.0%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 60.6% 1.65 -7.8%

Draw 22.2% 27.8% 3.60 -12.0%

Away win 21.9% 23.1% 4.33 -3.1%

Over 2.5 53.9% 54.1% 1.85 -0.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

BTTS 53.0% 54.1% 1.85 -1.9%

Home O1.5 54.9% — — —

Away O1.5 22.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 30.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.0%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 1–1 9.9%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shturmi2.0

Samtredia0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SHTURMI · PPG 1.90

SAMTREDIA · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.17 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Shturmi (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -7.8%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.0%

Samtredia (A) 21.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shturmi face Samtredia in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shturmi a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Samtredia 22%, so Shturmi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Shturmi and 0.8 for Samtredia (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shturmi are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.64 for Samtredia. This match finished 0-1.

Shturmi vs Samtredia Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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