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Merani Martvili vs Shturmi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Regular Season - 11 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 12:00

Merani Martvili

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Shturmi

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-112.7%0-26.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.2%1-113.5%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.6%2-17.1%2-23.4%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.7%3-12.5%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% 50.0% 2.00 -22.6%

Draw 31.1% 31.3% 3.20 -0.5%

Away win 30.2% 31.3% 3.20 -3.4%

Over 2.5 41.5% 47.6% 2.10 -12.8%

Over 3.5 14.4% 26.9% 3.72 -27.9%

BTTS 48.2% 54.1% 1.85 -10.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.2%

D 31% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0✓ 13.4%

#3 1–0 14.2%

#4 0–1 12.7%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Merani Martvili1.1

Shturmi0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.5% · O3.5 PROB 14.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MERANI MARTVILI · PPG 2.00

SHTURMI · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Merani Martvili (H) 38.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -22.6%

Draw 31.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -0.5%

Shturmi (A) 30.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Merani Martvili face Shturmi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Merani Martvili a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Shturmi 30%, so Merani Martvili are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Merani Martvili and 0.9 for Shturmi (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Merani Martvili are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.40 for Shturmi. This match finished 0-0.

Merani Martvili vs Shturmi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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