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Gareji vs Aragvi Dusheti Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 13:00

Gareji

PPG 2.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aragvi Dusheti

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-15.1%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.7%1-18.8%1-22.0%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.9%2-17.6%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.7%3-14.3%3-21.0%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-12.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.3% — — —

Draw 23.2% — — —

Away win 15.5% — — —

Over 2.5 45.9% — — —

Over 3.5 26.0% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 13.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 73.3%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob44.6%

H 61% / xG 1.7-0.4 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.7%

#2 2–0 16.9%

#3 0–0 11.5%

#4 1–1 8.8%

#5 3–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gareji1.7

Aragvi Dusheti0.4

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GAREJI · PPG 2.30

ARAGVI DUSHETI · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gareji (H) 61.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aragvi Dusheti (A) 15.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gareji face Aragvi Dusheti in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gareji a 61% chance, the draw 23% and Aragvi Dusheti 16%, so Gareji are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Gareji and 0.4 for Aragvi Dusheti (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gareji are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 0.60 for Aragvi Dusheti.

Gareji vs Aragvi Dusheti Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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