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Gareji Sagarejo vs Telavi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Regular Season - 11 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 12:00

Gareji Sagarejo

PPG 2.60 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Telavi

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.5%0-17.9%0-21.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.6%1-110.2%1-22.3%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.6%2-16.6%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.3%3-12.8%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-11.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 48.8% 2.05 +4.5%

Draw 29.1% 32.3% 3.10 -5.9%

Away win 19.9% 30.8% 3.25 -21.2%

Over 2.5 35.1% 44.4% 2.25 -21.0%

Over 3.5 10.0% 25.1% 3.98 -36.1%

BTTS 45.4% 51.3% 1.95 -11.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.4%

H 51% / xG 1.3-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.6%

#2 0–0 17.5%

#3 2–0✓ 14.6%

#4 1–1 10.2%

#5 2–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gareji Sagarejo1.3

Telavi0.5

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 10.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GAREJI SAGAREJO · PPG 2.60

TELAVI · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Gareji Sagarejo (H) 51.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +4.5%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.9%

Telavi (A) 19.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -21.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gareji Sagarejo face Telavi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gareji Sagarejo a 51% chance, the draw 29% and Telavi 20%, so Gareji Sagarejo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Gareji Sagarejo and 0.5 for Telavi (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gareji Sagarejo are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.80 for Telavi. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Gareji Sagarejo vs Telavi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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