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Buchholz vs ETSV Hamburg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Hamburg - 17 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 17:00

Buchholz

PPG 1.79 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

ETSV Hamburg

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 5.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-11.2%0-22.4%0-33.0%0-4+7.9%1 1-00.6%1-12.4%1-24.5%1-35.8%1-4+15.1%2 2-00.6%2-12.2%2-24.3%2-35.5%2-4+14.4%3 3-00.4%3-11.4%3-22.7%3-33.5%3-4+9.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-11.0%4+-22.0%4+-32.6%4+-4+6.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.9% — — —

Draw 21.9% — — —

Away win 63.2% — — —

Over 2.5 79.5% — — —

Over 3.5 82.3% — — —

BTTS 65.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)3.8 BTTS prob65.5%

A 63% / xG 1.9-3.8 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3✓ 5.8%

#2 1–4 5.5%

#3 2–3 5.5%

#4 2–4 5.3%

#5 1–2 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Buchholz1.9

ETSV Hamburg3.8

COMBINED 5.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.5% · O3.5 PROB 82.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BUCHHOLZ · PPG 1.79

ETSV HAMBURG · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.79) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.20)

Win probability 1X2

Buchholz (H) 14.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

ETSV Hamburg (A) 63.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Buchholz face ETSV Hamburg in Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Buchholz a 15% chance, the draw 22% and ETSV Hamburg 63%, so ETSV Hamburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Buchholz and 3.8 for ETSV Hamburg (5.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Buchholz are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 2.20 for ETSV Hamburg. This match finished 1-3.

Buchholz vs ETSV Hamburg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Match Preview & Prediction

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