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Harksheide vs Curslack-N. Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Hamburg - 33 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 17:30

Harksheide

PPG 1.69 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O3.5

Curslack-N.

PPG 0.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 7.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.1%0-20.1%0-30.1%0-4+0.1%1 1-00.4%1-10.7%1-20.7%1-30.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-01.1%2-12.0%2-21.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.9%3-13.5%3-23.2%3-32.0%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-012.6%4+-123.0%4+-221.1%4+-312.9%4+-4+8.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.8% — — —

Draw 20.5% — — —

Away win 8.8% — — —

Over 2.5 79.4% — — —

Over 3.5 92.9% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)5.4 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob66.7%

H 71% / xG 5.4-1.8 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–1 5.1%

#2 4–1 4.7%

#3 5–2 4.6%

#4 4–2 4.3%

#5 3–1 3.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Harksheide5.4

Curslack-N.1.8

COMBINED 7.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.4% · O3.5 PROB 92.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HARKSHEIDE · PPG 1.69

CURSLACK-N. · PPG 0.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.69), Away POOR (0.06) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Harksheide (H) 70.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Curslack-N. (A) 8.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Harksheide face Curslack-N. in Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Harksheide a 71% chance, the draw 21% and Curslack-N. 9%, so Harksheide are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.4 for Harksheide and 1.8 for Curslack-N. (7.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Harksheide are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.06 for Curslack-N.. This match finished 2-0.

Harksheide vs Curslack-N. Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Match Preview & Prediction

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