Today / Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg / HEBC vs ETSV Hamburg

HEBC vs ETSV Hamburg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Hamburg - 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 08:45

HEBC

PPG 1.44 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

ETSV Hamburg

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-13.9%0-26.7%0-37.7%0-4+16.2%1 1-01.2%1-14.0%1-26.9%1-38.0%1-4+16.7%2 2-00.6%2-12.1%2-23.6%2-34.1%2-4+8.6%3 3-00.2%3-10.7%3-21.2%3-31.4%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.6% — — —

Draw 21.1% — — —

Away win 66.3% — — —

Over 2.5 69.8% — — —

Over 3.5 65.7% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)3.5 BTTS prob58.8%

A 66% / xG 1.0-3.5 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 8.0%

#2 0–3 7.7%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 1–4 6.9%

#5 0–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HEBC1.0

ETSV Hamburg3.5

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 65.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HEBC · PPG 1.44

ETSV HAMBURG · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

HEBC (H) 12.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

ETSV Hamburg (A) 66.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

HEBC face ETSV Hamburg in Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HEBC a 13% chance, the draw 21% and ETSV Hamburg 66%, so ETSV Hamburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for HEBC and 3.5 for ETSV Hamburg (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HEBC are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 2.25 for ETSV Hamburg. This match finished 0-4.

HEBC vs ETSV Hamburg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg Predictions