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Niendorfer TSV vs Vorwarts-Wacker Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Hamburg - 23 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 17:00

Niendorfer TSV

PPG 1.38 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Vorwarts-Wacker

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-10.9%0-20.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-01.6%1-13.1%1-23.0%1-32.0%1-4+1.5%2 2-02.7%2-15.3%2-25.2%2-33.4%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.1%3-16.1%3-25.9%3-33.8%3-4+2.9%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-112.4%4+-212.1%4+-37.8%4+-4+6.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% — — —

Draw 21.0% — — —

Away win 22.9% — — —

Over 2.5 78.8% — — —

Over 3.5 78.3% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob66.7%

H 56% / xG 3.4-1.9 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.1%

#2 3–2 5.9%

#3 2–1✓ 5.3%

#4 2–2 5.2%

#5 4–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Niendorfer TSV3.4

Vorwarts-Wacker1.9

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 78.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NIENDORFER TSV · PPG 1.38

VORWARTS-WACKER · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Niendorfer TSV (H) 56.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Vorwarts-Wacker (A) 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Niendorfer TSV face Vorwarts-Wacker in Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Niendorfer TSV a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Vorwarts-Wacker 23%, so Niendorfer TSV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Niendorfer TSV and 1.9 for Vorwarts-Wacker (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Niendorfer TSV are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.80 for Vorwarts-Wacker. This match finished 2-1.

Niendorfer TSV vs Vorwarts-Wacker Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Match Preview & Prediction

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