Today / Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg / Buchholz vs Paloma

Buchholz vs Paloma Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Hamburg - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:00

Buchholz

PPG 1.67 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

Paloma

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 5.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.9%0-21.5%0-31.6%0-4+2.7%1 1-00.8%1-12.5%1-24.0%1-34.1%1-4+7.1%2 2-01.1%2-13.4%2-25.3%2-35.5%2-4+9.5%3 3-01.0%3-13.0%3-24.7%3-34.9%3-4+8.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-13.8%4+-26.0%4+-36.2%4+-4+10.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 42.8% — — —

Over 2.5 78.8% — — —

Over 3.5 83.0% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob66.7%

A 43% / xG 2.7-3.1 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–3 5.5%

#2 2–2 5.3%

#3 3–3 4.9%

#4 3–2 4.7%

#5 2–4 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Buchholz2.7

Paloma3.1

COMBINED 5.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 83.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BUCHHOLZ · PPG 1.67

PALOMA · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Buchholz (H) 36.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Paloma (A) 42.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Buchholz face Paloma in Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Buchholz a 36% chance, the draw 21% and Paloma 43%, so Paloma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Buchholz and 3.1 for Paloma (5.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-3. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Buchholz are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.60 for Paloma. This match finished 4-0.

Buchholz vs Paloma Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg Predictions