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ETSV Hamburg vs Buchholz Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Hamburg - 34 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 17:00

ETSV Hamburg

PPG 2.56 · HOME

6 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

Buchholz

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 6.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.2%0-20.1%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.0%1-11.1%1-20.7%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-02.4%2-12.9%2-21.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.1%3-14.9%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-022.3%4+-126.9%4+-216.2%4+-36.5%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.8% — — —

Draw 17.4% — — —

Away win 7.8% — — —

Over 2.5 78.8% — — —

Over 3.5 87.2% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-2

xG (home)5.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.5%

H 75% / xG 5.1-1.2 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–1 6.3%

#2 4–1 6.2%

#3 5–0 5.3%

#4 4–0 5.2%

#5 3–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ETSV Hamburg5.1

Buchholz1.2

COMBINED 6.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 87.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ETSV HAMBURG · PPG 2.56

BUCHHOLZ · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.56), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

ETSV Hamburg (H) 74.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Buchholz (A) 7.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

ETSV Hamburg face Buchholz in Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ETSV Hamburg a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Buchholz 8%, so ETSV Hamburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.1 for ETSV Hamburg and 1.2 for Buchholz (6.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ETSV Hamburg are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 1.00 for Buchholz. This match finished 6-2.

ETSV Hamburg vs Buchholz Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Match Preview & Prediction

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