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Eimsbutteler vs Sasel Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Hamburg - 34 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 17:00

Eimsbutteler

PPG 2.13 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

Sasel

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 6.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.3%0-20.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.2%1 1-00.7%1-11.4%1-21.5%1-31.0%1-4+0.9%2 2-01.5%2-13.2%2-23.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.2%3-14.6%3-24.8%3-33.3%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-07.9%4+-116.5%4+-217.1%4+-311.9%4+-4+10.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.4% — — —

Draw 19.6% — — —

Away win 20.0% — — —

Over 2.5 78.8% — — —

Over 3.5 88.4% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)4.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob66.7%

H 60% / xG 4.4-2.1 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–2 5.2%

#2 4–1 5.0%

#3 3–2 4.8%

#4 3–1 4.6%

#5 5–2 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eimsbutteler4.4

Sasel2.1

COMBINED 6.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 88.4%

Form & verdict PPG

EIMSBUTTELER · PPG 2.13

SASEL · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.13) > Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Eimsbutteler (H) 60.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sasel (A) 20.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Eimsbutteler face Sasel in Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eimsbutteler a 60% chance, the draw 20% and Sasel 20%, so Eimsbutteler are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.4 for Eimsbutteler and 2.1 for Sasel (6.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-2. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eimsbutteler are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.38 for Sasel. This match finished 4-0.

Eimsbutteler vs Sasel Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Match Preview & Prediction

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