Today / Liaoning Tieren vs Chengdu

Liaoning Tieren vs Chengdu Prediction

Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Liaoning Tieren

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chengdu

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-18.7%0-28.5%0-35.5%0-4+4.2%1 1-05.2%1-110.1%1-29.8%1-36.4%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.0%2-15.9%2-25.7%2-33.7%2-4+2.8%3 3-01.2%3-12.3%3-22.2%3-31.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.7% — — —

Draw 27.6% — — —

Away win 45.7% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 37.8% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob58.5%

A 46% / xG 1.2-2.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.5%

#4 0–1 8.7%

#5 1–3 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liaoning Tieren1.2

Chengdu2.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LIAONING TIEREN · PPG 2.00

CHENGDU · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.00) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.50)

Win probability 1X2

Liaoning Tieren (H) 26.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Chengdu (A) 45.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Liaoning Tieren face Chengdu on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liaoning Tieren a 27% chance, the draw 28% and Chengdu 46%, so Chengdu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Liaoning Tieren and 2.0 for Chengdu (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liaoning Tieren are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.50 for Chengdu.

Liaoning Tieren vs Chengdu Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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