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Benfica B vs Torreense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:30

Benfica B

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDL ·

UPCOMING

Torreense

PPG 1.26 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-18.1%0-24.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.5%1-112.2%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.3%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.4%3-14.7%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 38.2% 2.62 +23.4%

Draw 24.9% 30.3% 3.30 -10.7%

Away win 28.0% 40.7% 2.46 -18.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 31.3% 3.20 +1.1%

BTTS 54.6% 60.6% 1.65 -9.9%

Home O1.5 39.9% 41.7% 2.40 -4.2%

Away O1.5 32.5% 43.5% 2.30 -25.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Benfica B1.5

Torreense1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BENFICA B · PPG 1.63

TORREENSE · PPG 1.26

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Benfica B (H) 47.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +23.4%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.7%

Torreense (A) 28.0%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV -18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Benfica B face Torreense in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Benfica B a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Torreense 28%, so Benfica B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Benfica B and 1.1 for Torreense (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Benfica B are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.26 for Torreense. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +22.4%.

Benfica B vs Torreense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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