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Vizela vs Felgueiras 1932 Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 10:00

Vizela

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDW ·

UPCOMING

Felgueiras 1932

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-111.7%0-24.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.7%1-113.2%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.9%2-17.5%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.4%3-12.8%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.3% 44.4% 2.25 -4.8%

Draw 29.4% 34.5% 2.90 -8.8%

Away win 28.3% 32.3% 3.10 -7.4%

Over 2.5 42.6% 41.7% 2.40 +2.2%

Over 3.5 20.9% 22.2% 4.50 -3.6%

BTTS 48.0% 50.0% 2.00 -4.0%

Home O1.5 31.2% 38.2% 2.62 -18.3%

Away O1.5 24.1% 28.6% 3.50 -9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 42% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.7%

#2 0–0 13.8%

#3 1–1 13.2%

#4 0–1 11.7%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vizela1.1

Felgueiras 19320.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.6% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VIZELA · PPG 1.71

FELGUEIRAS 1932 · PPG 1.18

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.29, combined xG 1.98 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vizela (H) 42.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -4.8%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.8%

Felgueiras 1932 (A) 28.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vizela face Felgueiras 1932 in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vizela a 42% chance, the draw 29% and Felgueiras 1932 28%, so Vizela are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Vizela and 0.8 for Felgueiras 1932 (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vizela are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.18 for Felgueiras 1932. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.9%.

Vizela vs Felgueiras 1932 Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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