Today / Portugal - Segunda Liga / Tondela vs FC Porto B

Tondela vs FC Porto B Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Tondela

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLL ·

UPCOMING

FC Porto B

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-19.9%0-25.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.8%1-113.0%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.4%2-18.5%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.7%3-13.7%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 60.2% 1.66 -27.6%

Draw 27.3% 27.8% 3.60 -1.0%

Away win 29.1% 20.8% 4.80 +23.8%

Over 2.5 50.4% 52.6% 1.90 -4.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 31.3% 3.20 -4.9%

BTTS 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Home O1.5 38.4% 56.5% 1.77 -32.0%

Away O1.5 31.2% 27.0% 3.70 +15.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 0–0 9.8%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tondela1.3

FC Porto B1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TONDELA · PPG 1.50

FC PORTO B · PPG 1.32

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.30, combined xG 2.32 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tondela (H) 43.6%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV -27.6%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.0%

FC Porto B (A) 29.1%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +23.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tondela face FC Porto B in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tondela a 44% chance, the draw 27% and FC Porto B 29%, so Tondela are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Tondela and 1.0 for FC Porto B (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tondela are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.32 for FC Porto B. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +21.9%.

Tondela vs FC Porto B Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Portugal - Segunda Liga Predictions