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Penafiel vs Academica Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Penafiel

PPG 1.51 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWW ·

UPCOMING

Academica

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-110.7%0-26.0%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.6%1-113.1%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.1%2-18.1%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.9%3-13.3%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% 47.6% 2.10 -10.3%

Draw 27.3% 34.5% 2.90 -12.5%

Away win 30.0% 30.3% 3.30 -1.0%

Over 2.5 50.4% 44.4% 2.25 +13.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.0% 4.00 +8.9%

BTTS 52.9% 52.4% 1.91 +1.0%

Home O1.5 33.8% 42.0% 2.38 -19.6%

Away O1.5 33.2% 29.4% 3.40 +12.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 43% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 0–0 9.5%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 2–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Penafiel1.2

Academica1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PENAFIEL · PPG 1.51

ACADEMICA · PPG 1.93

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.10, combined xG 2.36 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Penafiel (H) 42.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -10.3%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.5%

Academica (A) 30.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Penafiel face Academica in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Penafiel a 43% chance, the draw 27% and Academica 30%, so Penafiel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Penafiel and 1.1 for Academica (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Penafiel are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 1.93 for Academica. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +28.2%.

Penafiel vs Academica Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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