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Leixoes vs Amarante Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:30

Leixoes

PPG 1.49 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLW ·

UPCOMING

Amarante

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-110.5%0-25.6%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.3%1-113.2%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.7%2-18.2%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.2%3-13.4%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.6% 54.1% 1.85 -23.0%

Draw 28.2% 32.3% 3.10 -7.5%

Away win 30.2% 26.3% 3.80 +14.8%

Over 2.5 47.2% 46.5% 2.15 +1.5%

Over 3.5 26.3% 26.7% 3.75 -0.8%

BTTS 50.7% 54.1% 1.85 -6.2%

Home O1.5 36.2% 47.6% 2.10 -24.0%

Away O1.5 32.5% 28.6% 3.50 +13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.7%

H 42% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 0–0 9.9%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 0–1 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leixoes1.2

Amarante1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.2% · O3.5 PROB 26.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LEIXOES · PPG 1.49

AMARANTE · PPG 1.21

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

53%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.18, combined xG 2.32 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leixoes (H) 41.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -23.0%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.5%

Amarante (A) 30.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leixoes face Amarante in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leixoes a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Amarante 30%, so Leixoes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Leixoes and 1.1 for Amarante (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leixoes are averaging 1.49 points per game versus 1.21 for Amarante. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +26.9%.

Leixoes vs Amarante Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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