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Aarhus vs Silkeborg Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:00

Aarhus

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLL

UPCOMING

Silkeborg

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.1%0-22.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.7%1-110.1%1-25.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.2%3-16.5%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-15.0%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 66.7% 1.50 -20.8%

Draw 23.6% 21.7% 4.60 +5.1%

Away win 23.6% 19.0% 5.25 +14.3%

Over 2.5 59.6% 70.4% 1.42 -15.4%

Over 3.5 36.4% 47.6% 2.10 -23.6%

BTTS 55.9% 66.7% 1.50 -16.2%

Home O1.5 55.8% 71.4% 1.40 -21.9%

Away O1.5 32.5% 35.7% 2.80 -9.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aarhus2.0

Silkeborg1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AARHUS · PPG 1.44

SILKEBORG · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aarhus (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -20.8%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +5.1%

Silkeborg (A) 23.6%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aarhus face Silkeborg in Denmark - Superliga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aarhus a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Silkeborg 24%, so Aarhus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Aarhus and 1.0 for Silkeborg (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aarhus are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.88 for Silkeborg. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +1.8%.

Aarhus vs Silkeborg Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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