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Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 12:00

Sonderjyske

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

UPCOMING

AC Horsens

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-18.0%0-25.6%0-32.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.2%1-111.6%1-28.2%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.0%2-18.5%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.9%3-14.2%3-22.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 45.5% 2.20 -18.8%

Draw 24.4% 31.3% 3.20 -13.2%

Away win 38.7% 32.3% 3.10 +20.0%

Over 2.5 59.6% 54.1% 1.85 +10.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 30.8% 3.25 +18.3%

BTTS 61.5% 60.6% 1.65 +1.5%

Home O1.5 39.9% 47.6% 2.10 -16.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 38.2% 2.62 +10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.5%

A 39% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 0–1 8.0%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sonderjyske1.5

AC Horsens1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SONDERJYSKE · PPG 1.14

AC HORSENS · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sonderjyske (H) 36.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -18.8%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.2%

AC Horsens (A) 38.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sonderjyske face AC Horsens in Denmark - Superliga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sonderjyske a 37% chance, the draw 24% and AC Horsens 39%, so AC Horsens are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sonderjyske and 1.4 for AC Horsens (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sonderjyske are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.50 for AC Horsens. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.3%.

Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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