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Randers FC vs Aarhus Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:00

Randers FC

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Aarhus

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-19.7%0-27.1%0-33.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.2%1-112.1%1-28.9%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.1%2-17.6%2-25.5%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.1%3-13.1%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 31.3% 3.20 +11.7%

Draw 23.7% 28.6% 3.50 -10.2%

Away win 41.5% 48.8% 2.05 -14.9%

Over 2.5 53.5% 59.9% 1.67 -10.7%

Over 3.5 31.5% 38.2% 2.62 -17.5%

BTTS 55.0% 63.7% 1.57 -13.7%

Home O1.5 35.3% 40.0% 2.50 -11.8%

Away O1.5 40.9% 54.6% 1.83 -25.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.0%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1✓ 7.6%

#4 0–1 9.7%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Randers FC1.2

Aarhus1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RANDERS FC · PPG 1.31

AARHUS · PPG 1.47

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Randers FC (H) 34.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +11.7%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.2%

Aarhus (A) 41.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Randers FC face Aarhus in Denmark - Superliga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Randers FC a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Aarhus 42%, so Aarhus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Randers FC and 1.5 for Aarhus (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Randers FC are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.47 for Aarhus. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Randers FC vs Aarhus Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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