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Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Matchday 6 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 18:00

Aarhus

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLDL

UPCOMING

FC Midtjylland

PPG 1.72 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-18.0%0-25.9%0-32.9%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.9%1-111.6%1-28.4%1-34.1%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.3%2-26.1%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.7%3-14.0%3-22.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 32.3% 3.10 +14.1%

Draw 24.5% 27.0% 3.70 -5.6%

Away win 38.7% 47.6% 2.10 -18.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 61.7% 1.62 -12.8%

Over 3.5 34.3% 39.2% 2.55 -12.5%

BTTS 58.7% 66.7% 1.50 -11.9%

Home O1.5 39.9% 43.5% 2.30 -8.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 54.6% 1.83 -22.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.7%

A 39% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–1 8.0%

#5 1–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aarhus1.4

FC Midtjylland1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AARHUS · PPG 1.65

FC MIDTJYLLAND · PPG 1.72

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aarhus (H) 36.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +14.1%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.6%

FC Midtjylland (A) 38.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aarhus face FC Midtjylland in Denmark - Superliga on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aarhus a 37% chance, the draw 25% and FC Midtjylland 39%, so FC Midtjylland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Aarhus and 1.5 for FC Midtjylland (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aarhus are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.72 for FC Midtjylland. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +3.8%.

Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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