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FC Copenhagen vs Sonderjyske Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 17:00

FC Copenhagen

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Sonderjyske

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.5%0-22.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.9%1-18.2%1-24.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.1%2-19.6%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.4%3-17.5%3-24.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-17.6%4+-24.5%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.7% 73.5% 1.36 -21.5%

Draw 20.6% 20.8% 4.80 -0.7%

Away win 21.7% 13.9% 7.20 +33.7%

Over 2.5 66.3% 67.6% 1.48 -1.9%

Over 3.5 44.9% 46.5% 2.15 -3.5%

BTTS 61.5% 61.7% 1.62 -0.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 73.5% 1.36 -9.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 28.6% 3.50 +16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 58% / xG 2.3-1.2 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 3–1✓ 7.5%

#5 1–2 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Copenhagen2.3

Sonderjyske1.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FC COPENHAGEN · PPG 1.78

SONDERJYSKE · PPG 0.87

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.17 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Copenhagen (H) 57.7%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -21.5%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -0.7%

Sonderjyske (A) 21.7%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +33.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Copenhagen face Sonderjyske in Denmark - Superliga on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Copenhagen a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Sonderjyske 22%, so FC Copenhagen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for FC Copenhagen and 1.2 for Sonderjyske (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Copenhagen are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.87 for Sonderjyske. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +45.6%. This match finished 3-1.

FC Copenhagen vs Sonderjyske Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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