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Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:00

Zorya Luhansk

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWL ·

UPCOMING

FC Kharkiv

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-19.8%0-25.5%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.5%1-112.9%1-27.2%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.6%2-18.5%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.3%3-13.7%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 33.3% 3.00 +31.7%

Draw 26.9% 31.3% 3.20 -8.3%

Away win 29.3% 45.5% 2.20 -21.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.3% 3.80 +5.4%

BTTS 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

Home O1.5 37.2% 35.1% 2.85 +6.0%

Away O1.5 33.0% 43.5% 2.30 -24.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zorya Luhansk1.3

FC Kharkiv1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ZORYA LUHANSK · PPG 1.55

FC KHARKIV · PPG 1.34

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.19, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Zorya Luhansk (H) 43.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +31.7%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.3%

FC Kharkiv (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -21.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zorya Luhansk face FC Kharkiv in Ukraine - Premier League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zorya Luhansk a 44% chance, the draw 27% and FC Kharkiv 29%, so Zorya Luhansk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Zorya Luhansk and 1.1 for FC Kharkiv (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zorya Luhansk are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.34 for FC Kharkiv. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +27.1%.

Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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