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FC Kharkiv vs Obolon'-Brovar Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

FC Kharkiv

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLW ·

UPCOMING

Obolon'-Brovar

PPG 0.99 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDD ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.9%0-110.1%0-23.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.3%1-112.4%1-24.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.3%2-17.6%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.6%3-13.1%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 74.1% 1.35 -37.9%

Draw 31.6% 26.0% 3.85 +21.7%

Away win 22.5% 9.5% 10.50 +81.8%

Over 2.5 38.8% 45.5% 2.20 -14.6%

Over 3.5 18.5% 25.3% 3.95 -16.2%

BTTS 42.5% 39.2% 2.55 +8.4%

Home O1.5 33.9% 60.6% 1.65 -44.1%

Away O1.5 18.8% 11.5% 8.70 +38.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob42.5%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.3%

#2 0–0 14.9%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 11.3%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Kharkiv1.2

Obolon'-Brovar0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FC KHARKIV · PPG 1.61

OBOLON'-BROVAR · PPG 0.99

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Kharkiv (H) 46.0%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -37.9%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +21.7%

Obolon'-Brovar (A) 22.5%

ODDS 10.50 · IMPLIED 9.5% EV +81.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Kharkiv face Obolon'-Brovar in Ukraine - Premier League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Kharkiv a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Obolon'-Brovar 23%, so FC Kharkiv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for FC Kharkiv and 0.7 for Obolon'-Brovar (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 0.99 for Obolon'-Brovar. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +72.5%.

FC Kharkiv vs Obolon'-Brovar Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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